Dallas Housing Market

This morning Steve Brown of the Dallas Morning News gave a detailed report of the local housing market, noting that Dallas is poised for a bounce-back in 2010. What makes him think so? Here is a quick overview of his data:

• Sales of pre-owned homes have increased significantly from year-ago numbers
• Home price declines have slowed and almost stopped
• Median home prices have inched up from their bottom in February
• North Texas housing inventory has fallen to the lowest level since 2007
• Home buyer demand is up, which will lead to more building starts in 2010

Brown reports that foreclosures are “unlikely to ease” in 2010. George Roddy, president of Foreclosure Listing Service, commented that even when the economy rebounds in North Texas, the foreclosure market will lag.

Nonetheless, economist David Berson of the PMI Group remains confident: “We expect the Texas economy to perform better than the national average over the next year.”

For further details, visit dallasnews.com.

U.S. home prices climb for the third straight month, though the nation’s annual rates are still declining. Dallas home prices rose 0.2% last month, and dipped only 1.2% from August 2009. To see how Dallas compares overall (quite well!) click this interactive map, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal.

Last week luxury realtors gathered to hear an economic overview from Anthony Chan, a chief economist at JPMorgan who previously worked for the Federal Reserve. A brilliant thinker with extensive wisdom and insight, Chan shared his perspective on a number of issues including real estate, the federal fiscal programs, the strength of the dollar, and global GDP rates.

Describing himself as “cautiously optimistic,” Chan stated confidently that in terms of residential real estate, “the darkest days are behind us.” As for commercial real estate? Chan echoed Richard Fisher of the Dallas Federal Reserve, “We’re likely only in the 3^rd or 4^th inning…”

Some of the current numbers Chan offered up were the knock-the-wind-out-of-your-stomach sort: $50 trillion lost overall in this financial crisis; a 9.8% unemployment rate; a 40% debt-to-GDP ratio for the U.S. But when he compared that 40% to Japan’s 200%, the audience collectively sighed as if to say, “well, at least we’re not that bad.”

His future projections were more propitious. Chan expects to see continued sequential growth in the housing sector (probably at a rate of 3-3.25% over the next 12-18 months), and he predicts that the Fed won’t raise interest rates until at least the third quarter of 2010. Not concerned about inflation, Chan believes that today’s weak dollar is benefiting America by attracting foreign headquarters and factories to U.S. soil.

Lightly sprinkled with jokes, Chan’s sobering talk left the crowd consciously informed about the gravity of our present circumstances, and also encouraged about the future.

Listed below are a few pages from his party favor – a booklet of the latest economic data.