Alan Bush

Last Wednesday Alan Bush of the FDIC and Jim Gaines of Texas A&M spoke at Forecast 2010, a professional development conference for Dallas realtors. The two experts shared extensive information about the local, state, and national economies, and UpdateDallas has posted a summary with charts. To view the full presentations, click through to Alan Bush or Jim Gaines.

Bush explained that average U.S. home prices are likely near bottom and are expected to rebound of 7.8% over the next two years.

Observing several positive indicators in the current market, Bush mentioned that housing affordability remains near its highest level in years, and housing inventories are now declining from their peak levels. See charts below.

When asked whether the housing market has bottomed, Gaines echoed Bush’s cautiously optimistic outlook: “Maybe, hopefully, probably. But we still may not really know for sure for another several months.” He sketched out a ‘Best Case Scenario’ that includes favorable corporate earnings for 4Q09, layoffs ending by late 2009, a “jobless recovery” in 2010, and rising consumer confidence and spending. Gaines noted the current personal consumption trends (see below) as a positive indicator of a budding economic rebound.

He shared a visual diagram of housing affordability in Texas versus the rest of the nation…

…and explained that Texas’ foreclosure rate remains remarkably strong compared to the rest of the country.

Finally, Gaines commented that Texas is “poised for a 21^st century boom” due to its population and economic growth, low-cost labor, pro-growth attitude, migration rates, and overall affordability. He gave statistics projecting high local and state population growth, implying that Dallas and Texas both have bright (hopefully booming) economic futures.

Click for more in-depth details from Alan Bush and Jim Gaines.